When I first wrote about this topic in 2016, it felt like a provocative prediction: self-driving cars would never be something the average person owns. Nearly a decade later, much of what I foresaw has come to pass, and the trajectory of autonomous vehicles (AVs) confirms that private ownership of these technological marvels will remain a niche luxury. Let’s revisit and update the reasoning behind this.
Self-driving cars are expensive – far more so than their human-driven counterparts. While sensor and hardware costs have fallen significantly since the early days, the complex software development, extensive safety testing, and ongoing maintenance required to ensure reliability keep these vehicles pricey. While the costs of sensors and computing hardware have dropped dramatically since 2016 (for instance, lidar systems now cost hundreds instead of tens of thousands of dollars), AVs remain a costly proposition. Their advanced technology, rigorous testing, and maintenance requirements ensure that they’re not just another upgrade, like adding leather seats or a panoramic sunroof.
More importantly, the economics of AV ownership clash with how most people use cars. Studies still show that private vehicles are parked around 95% of the time. In contrast, autonomous vehicles thrive in scenarios where they’re used intensively, maximizing their earning potential as taxis or delivery vehicles. Companies like Zoox and Cruise have embraced this model, rolling out fully autonomous robotaxis in limited urban areas. These vehicles are designed for shared use, not private ownership.
The development of self-driving cars has split into two competing visions, which are shaping the industry today. On one side, driver-assist models from companies like Tesla dominate the market, leveraging existing consumer demand for incremental autonomy. On the other, fully autonomous vehicles, championed by companies like Waymo and Cruise, are slowly but steadily gaining traction in urban areas as shared mobility solutions. On one hand, companies like Tesla and many European carmakers have focused on vehicles that can drive themselves in theory but still require a human driver to take responsibility if something goes wrong. This approach, often called “driver-assist,” relies on a mix of automation and human oversight, effectively making the car an advanced tool rather than a truly autonomous vehicle.
On the other hand, companies like Waymo, Zoox, and Cruise are developing fully autonomous cars that don’t need a human driver at all. These vehicles can be used by kids, pets, drunk people, or anyone unable or unwilling to drive. This vision represents a radical departure from traditional car ownership, as it entirely removes the human driver from the equation.
The driver-assist model may appeal to traditional carmakers because it’s a natural extension of their existing products. However, it is likely doomed to fail in the long term. True autonomy is not only more convenient but also safer and more aligned with the economic realities of shared mobility. European carmakers, in particular, risk falling behind if they don’t recognize the inevitability of this shift. Clinging to the driver-assist model could leave them unprepared for a future where fully autonomous vehicles dominate the market.
The rise of subscription and on-demand services has reshaped transportation in general. Instead of buying DVDs, we stream movies; instead of owning CDs, we pay for Spotify. Cars are no different. Services like Uber and Lyft have already laid the groundwork for ride-hailing as a standard way of getting around. With AVs, this concept evolves into subscription-based mobility services, where you pay a flat fee for unlimited access to self-driving rides.
This shift reflects a broader cultural transformation, particularly among younger generations. As self-driving technology matures, fewer people see the point of learning to drive. In 2023, a UK survey revealed that only 29% of teenagers planned to get a driver’s license as soon as they were eligible. Why shoulder the cost of buying, insuring, fueling, and maintaining a vehicle when an app can summon a ride within minutes? AVs make this proposition even more appealing by offering cheaper, safer, and more convenient transportation options.
As fewer people buy cars, the market for privately owned vehicles will shrink. Today, car manufacturers compete to sell millions of individual vehicles, offering a dizzying array of models and features. In the AV-dominated future, this diversity will wane. Fleet operators – not individuals – will be the primary customers for carmakers, leading to a market resembling the aviation industry. For example, Waymo’s partnerships with ride-hailing and logistics companies illustrate how large-scale fleet purchases are already driving the AV industry forward, replacing traditional sales to individual consumers. Just as airlines choose between a few plane models from Boeing or Airbus, mobility providers will select from a limited range of AV platforms, customized for their specific needs.
This consolidation has already begun. Companies like Tesla, Waymo, and GM’s Cruise are racing to perfect AV technology, while traditional automakers are investing heavily in electric and autonomous capabilities to stay relevant. But the writing is on the wall: the era of buying a car as a personal fashion statement or status symbol is fading.
As the technology matures, we’re likely to see a wide variety of autonomous vehicles designed for specific use cases. For instance, businesspeople could opt for AVs equipped with beds, allowing them to sleep en route and arrive well-rested for early meetings. Families may prefer campervan-like AVs for holidays, combining transportation with comfortable accommodations. Logistics companies could deploy specialized lorries for goods delivery, while urban planners could incorporate self-driving buses into public transit systems. In rural areas, where public transport options are often nonexistent, self-driving vehicles could fill critical gaps, providing reliable and affordable mobility to communities that have long been underserved. The possibilities are vast and tailored to diverse needs, further reinforcing the idea that shared and specialized AVs make more sense than private ownership.
This shift parallels a broader transformation in how we think about ownership. The concept of “access over ownership” has gained traction in many areas of life, and transportation is no exception. Self-driving taxis fit perfectly into this new mindset, offering convenience without commitment. This aligns with broader cultural shifts toward minimalism and sustainability, as people increasingly value access over ownership and seek environmentally friendly alternatives to traditional car usage.
The rise of self-driving cars is reshaping the automotive industry and society in profound ways. Fleet operators and AV developers stand to benefit immensely, as do cities that can reduce congestion and parking needs. On the other hand, traditional car manufacturers face existential threats, while millions of drivers – taxi drivers, truckers, and delivery drivers – may lose their livelihoods to automation.
The shift also has implications for urban planning and the environment. Fewer privately owned cars could mean less urban sprawl and more efficient use of resources. For instance, a 2022 study by the International Transport Forum found that widespread adoption of shared autonomous vehicles in urban areas could reduce the number of cars on the road by up to 90%, freeing up land currently used for parking and significantly lowering greenhouse gas emissions. However, the environmental benefits depend on whether AVs are predominantly electric and whether they reduce or exacerbate total vehicle miles traveled.
In the end, self-driving cars will transform mobility, but not in the way many imagined a decade ago. The dream of everyone owning their own autonomous car is giving way to a reality where self-driving technology powers shared fleets, not personal driveways. This model makes economic, cultural, and environmental sense – and it’s already starting to take shape.
So, if you were holding out for your very own self-driving car, it might be time to reconsider. Instead, imagine a future where mobility is a seamless service, available whenever you need it, without the burdens of ownership. That’s the real promise of autonomous vehicles, and it’s one that’s likely to redefine how we move through the world.